Violence In America

Gun Control

These related subjects have become more and more in the news lately. Experts struggle to find "answers" to these matters. They are looking at the wrong questions! With incorrect perceptions, no amount of perfect logic will achieve the complete understandings desired.

The problem is systemic to the human race. The diversity of mankind and the creative thought capable within the human mind are central to truly understanding the problem of violence in modern society.

Any statistician can tell you that virtually every characteristic in Nature exhibits a distribution often called a "Bell-shaped curve." This is a term that describes the distribution of the results of nearly any repetitive experiment that can be done. It equally describes the distribution of measurable characteristics for an incredible diversity of Natural phenomena and things. This certainly includes all living things, including people. An amazing number of characteristics of humans exhibit Bell-shaped curve distribution (which is also referred to as Normal or Gaussian distribution).

For example, American adult men each have a height measurement that describes how tall they are. A very few are over seven feet tall. A very few are under four feet tall. When the heights of thousands of adult American men are displayed on a graph, the results always display a distribution that is a Bell-shaped curve.

Such curves are called histograms, and they have several features that are often extremely useful. The curve is symmetric, so an Average height may be determined. There is a measurement, called the Standard Deviation, which specifies a difference in height from the Average. If the line for those two heights (one greater than the Average and one less than it) are drawn on the distribution curve, a known and fixed fraction of all the results lie between the two new lines. In the case of adult men's height, this means that about 2/3 of all of the men measured will have heights within that range.

This same situation is true for whatever characteristic was measured and graphed. Science and statistics came together long ago to use this knowledge to predict and document countless phenomena. The list of applications of this is virtually endless. Even political poll analysis relies on this very consistent situation. If just 1500 people are polled, about virtually ANYTHING, the results will always display as a Bell-shaped curve, with the width of the curve being the only variable. Generally 1500 people are polled, because that number is large enough to ensure results that accurately reflect the results that would occur if millions of people were polled, to within a level of accuracy of three percent.

We're not going to go into the whole field of statistics here, but a result is that the Standard Deviation for a particular set of data values can be used to create "Confidence intervals".


If we consider anti-social behavior, we can see a similar bell-shaped curve. Specifically, while most people are within a couple Standard Deviations from a "normal" behavior, there are always a certain percentage who are not. In reality, there are exceptional people in both directions! There are invariably people who behave FAR better than society expects. Such people virtually never cause any trouble, and they tend seldom to be even heard about. We are considering here the people that are exceptional in the other direction, the ones that society considers trouble-makers.

For discussion's sake, let's say that 3% of people have personalities that have such anti-social characteristics.

Now, let's consider a small community of 200 years ago, where maybe 50 families lived. Such communities tended to be isolated, geographically, personally and by information, from the outside world. Fifty families would have around 200 total people. Three percent of them is therefore six individuals.

Females had very little personal freedom then, so, however rebellious or trouble-making they might have been by nature, very severe punishments followed even minor infractions, and they tended to represent little in the way of social problems. As adults, they sometimes became prostitutes, and were generally disowned by their families, but otherwise didn't cause spectacular problems.

The three remaining male individual 'trouble-makers' were therefore the significant source of trouble for the community. These three were likely to be of different generations, maybe being 10, 30 and 50 years old. The point being made here is that very little peer-group encouragement occurred among them. With virtually no contact with the outside world, the creativeness of an individual's trouble-making was pretty much limited to his own creative abilities, in other words, pretty limited.

Whenever any of those three 'trouble-makers' actually did something anti-social, like starting a fight, or stealing something, the leaders of the community (or later, the Sheriff) would immediately and intensely apply punishment and retribution. This acted to be somewhat of a deterrent for future repeats of the same actions.


Flash forward to today. Where that small community only had three people to keep an eye one, the 3% represents a significant number today. In a metropolitan area like Chicago, where around 8 million people live, 3% is 240,000 people! Even if we temporarily set aside the 120,000 of them that are female, that's still 120,000 'trouble-makers' for the greater Chicago community!

Now, if each of them were isolated, and unaware of the outside world, the situation could still possibly be like in that old village. Even as recent as the 1950s, this situation still greatly existed, even in large cities like Chicago. But several things have changed to alter the dynamics now.

Physical movements of individuals is now extremely broad. Of those 120,000 'trouble-makers' in the Chicago area, it is now extremely easy for some group of ten of them to find each other. Given that they share some attitudes toward society and authority and Police, it seems natural that they could quickly establish some level of closeness. Where, in all other segments of their lives, they are looked down on and criticized and punished, here is a group of people who are actually interested in them and what they might have to say or do! It seems obvious that society has created a circumstance where they would gravitate toward one another.

This now creates at least two secondary effects.