North Pole Heating Faster than anywhere else

It seems that many scientists are mystified by the fact that the measured temperature increases near the North Pole have recently been several times faster than the temperature increases measured in other places. No one seems to know why. I think I do, and it is actually pretty simple.

Prior to around 1990, essentially the entire North Polar region was covered in permanent ice and snow, both water and land. According to Liu and Jordan Solar Energy, 1963, the reflectance of snow is around 0.7. That means that of the solar energy that would directly have come to the North Polar region, after getting through the effectively thicker atmosphere (due to the low angle of the light in passing through it), 70% of that remaining light was getting immediately reflected back out toward outer space by the snow and ice. Only 30% of that rather small amount of incoming energy was actually available to be absorbed, regarding providing heat to keep that region warm.

AFP image, published Sep 21, 2006 Now consider the situation since part of the North Polar Cap has melted. Some estimates are that 1/3 of it has already melted. This leaves either open ocean or open land as now exposed to the sun's light and heat. In other words, the high reflectivity of the snow and ice no longer reflects such a high percentage immediately back out into space. Liu and Jordan give a reflectance of 0.2 for open land. Open water figures to be relatively comparable.

NOW we have a situation where the remaining 80% of the small amount of solar energy coming in is available to heat the ground and air, rather than the 30% that had been available when snow and ice covered everything. Nearly three times the net intake of heat energy from the direct sunlight, in addition to the heat that the atmosphere transfers toward the poles from the equatorial regions by the Hadley Cell convections and the rest.

This effect shows the multiplication effect that often happens when any natural system is disturbed. Not only are the expected consequences seen, but new consequences that are due to secondary effects.

In this case, it seems reasonably logical that the North Polar region WOULD be heating up much faster than the rest of the planet right now, because that snow and ice cover has only recently been removed. This premise can probably be confirmed by seeing if NO such effect is yet seen in Antarctica. The snow and ice is so very thick there, that the white reflectivity should still be as it long has been, and Antarctica should logically be heating up at approximately the same rate as the rest of the planet. Only the North Polar region should be heating up much faster right now.


This presentation was first placed on the Internet in June 2007.



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C Johnson, Physicist, Physics Degree from Univ of Chicago